Columbus Chamber Blog: Information about economic development, economic and business trends, Columbus workforce, programs, events and the Chamber of Commerce in and around Columbus, OH

The Doctor is In: Civic Engagement

I had the great pleasure recently of speaking to an Ohio State University undergraduate class called “Civic Engagement.”  This class, led by Julie Graber, helps students explore the role of community involvement in their chosen career, whatever that may be.  The principal activity is to attend the weekly forums of the Columbus Metropolitan Club, and discuss and critique the presentation of the issues raised in those forums in class meetings and reports. 

The topics of my lecture included an introduction to the Columbus Chamber; the Attract and Retain Talent initiative; the redevelopment of downtown Columbus; and an overview of the regional economy – sort of a Columbus Economy 101. 

This last topic is especially important because of the misperceptions that many of us have regarding what makes this region’s economy tick. Here are some of the highlights:

• Good population growth, now and in the future
  • Columbus MSA population, 7/1/08: 1.773 million
    • Growth since 2000: 160,000 (9.9%)
    • Ohio growth since 2000: 133,000 (1.2%)
  • Second fastest-growing major (1 million+) MSA in the Midwest (out of 10).
    • 24th fastest-growing nationwide (out of 75).

• Ohio Department of Development projects continued growth to 2030.
  • Current 1.1% population growth rate expected to continue.
  • 2030 population: 2.25 million, up nearly 500,000.
  • Presents challenges for land use planning, transportation, infrastructure

• We are doing better than average in the recession.
  • Recession began December 2007.
  • Since then, we have lost 15,000 jobs (1.6%).  U.S. has lost 4.4 million jobs (3.2%).
  • Likely explanation: We missed the boom.
    • Employment growth weaker than average 2003-2006.
    • House price growth far less than average.
  • One measure suggests our house price trend is now among the strongest of any major market in the U.S.
  • I expect job losses to continue into 2010, but at a slower-than-average rate.

• A longer-term view:  What makes our economy tick?
  • Lots of misperceptions about this.
  • Some myths are unhelpful, others are dangerous
    • The myth of the “recession-proof” Columbus economy.
  • Focus on “driver” industry sectors.
  • Greater-than-average employment or output, growing faster than average.
    • Implies factors that give these firms a competitive advantage here.
  • Serve markets outside the region, bring dollars into the region (“export” sectors).
    • The only way to increase income, standard of living.

• Key economic drivers
  • Transportation and logistics
  • Manufacturing
  • Business services
  • Creative industries
  • Finance and insurance
  • Life sciences and healthcare

A series of posts will follow explaining the Columbus Region's key economic drivers.

The Doctor is In: Some good employment news

The preliminary estimate of jobs in the Columbus Metropolitan Statistical Area shows a net gain of 2,200 jobs (0.2 percent) in February. This is amazing given that the U.S. lost 651,000 jobs (0.5 percent). Nationally, only three sectors gained jobs: education and health care, leisure and hospitality, and government. Locally, each of these gained, as did construction (!), wholesale, retail, financial activities, and business services. It bears repeating that these estimates are preliminary and will be revised later this month. But indications so far are that the recession is not affecting us as badly as it is affecting other regions. Since the recession began in December 2007, our employment has declined at less than half the national rate: a total loss of 1.4 percent locally, 3.2 percent nationally. U.S. employment declined in each of the 14 months through February, while local employment rose in six of those months. Locally, the only sectors that have done worse than the national average so far are construction, transportation and utilities, leisure and hospitality, and government.

What’s going on here? I think the most likely explanation is that we are being less affected by the recession because we were less affected by the boom. Our job growth was less than average in each of the years between 2003 and 2006, and only slightly better than average in 2007. House prices never exploded here as they did elsewhere. We looked enviously at the national trends earlier in the decade, but it seems that we are now better off for not joining in the hysteria.

The Dr. Is In (Economic Trends and Analysis from Dr. LaFayette)

As the Columbus Chamber’s economist, my focus is tracking the economic and workforce changes that impact our eight-county region.  I am excited to be able to share these developments in an immediate way through this new blog.  My posts will include the monthly changes in our region’s employment and unemployment, population changes, information on our region’s output, national-level developments, and anything else that seems of interest.  I am also planning to include thoughts on what these numbers tell us – and what they don’t.  I will continue to produce a variety of detailed reports and fact sheets that will give more details.  Please let me know your thoughts – or post a comment – and by all means feel welcome to suggest topics of interest!